Fed Hawks and Hurricane Eyes

Mike Kimelman
Mike Kimelman
Fed Hawks and Hurricane Eyes

To all the Fathers out there, enjoy your day! I’ve got my own Dad in town and a house full of family, so here's the abridged recap of everything you need to know lightning round style.

The Fed said that maybe they might not add trillions of dollars to their balance sheet in perpetuity or keep interest rates at zero forever and the market threw a mini-tantrum.  Fed Head Jerome Powell said that at the end of 2023, he might consider taking his fingers off the Control-P monetary function.

2 quick points, no one honest can say with a shred of conviction where we will be economically at the end of 2023 (or even 2022 for that matter), especially the Fed who hasn't forecasted anything correctly in over two decades since Greenspan thought Y2K was going to be the equivalent of the Mayan Calendar apocalypse.

This is just one of the many reasons that I prefer decentralized or distributed sense-making and decision making.  Six old men eating a bland government chicken lunch behind closed doors and making interest rate and monetary decisions for 8 billion people (yes, their decisions matter for the world, not just the US and our weaponization of the dollar as reserve currency is one reason we're not that popular in many places) could never come to a conclusion remotely close to the one arrived at by 300 million free market participants arrive on their own individually through pricing and pursuit of their own self interest.  [If you find this hard to understand, you've got a lot of homework to do.]

Fortunately, we did manage to sneak a camera into the Fed's decision making process.

Feds hawkish tilt from Goldman Sachs :

The economists at Goldman had this take, “Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended U.S. post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy."

Lol. Hawkish. Zero percent rates for the next 2 years and massive bond buying and balance sheet expansion is now “hawkish”. This level of clown world we find ourselves in really defies description. I've talked at length how we are living in one big financial and social experiment.

For the sake of my kids and their kids, the real time experiment in monetary revolution we call bitcoin, Defi and crypto needs to accelerate. The bonafide truth is the ‘experts’ know as much as you do, and they have no idea how this turns out either.

Apparently to no one's surprise on the Right, the FBI was aware of and possibly provoked some of the mostly non-violent MAGA mini-riot on January 6th. Remember all the fake stories around the Riot including the Capitol security officer that was killed by a fire extinguisher that made the rounds on CNN and MSM for weeks despite not one ounce of evidence (and actual video that disproved the entire fabricated theory wholesale)?

Darren Beattie and Revolver revealed the results of a multi-month investigation which is thought provoking and suggests that FBI informants and multiple unindicted co-conspirators were responsible for facilitating some of the riot.

You mean the national security apparatus that was responsible for the assassination of MLK, RFK, and has made a career out of infiltrating grass roots organizations pushing for change and overthrowing governments around the world that refuse to pay tribute.....actually works for the establishment oligarchs to maintain a chokehold on power and isn't always a beneficent force for good or the American way? You don't say.

Conspiracy Theory Shortage

Who's got a good conspiracy theory we can dig into now that along with the labor shortage, the gas shortage, the commodity shortage and supply chain shortages Sleepy Joe and his band of Marxist nitwits have blessed the American people with, there is a shortage of conspiracy theories because they've literally ALL COME TRUE?!?

Whether it was masks work, to Wuhan Virus origination, to vaccine passports would never happen, since nearly every theory the Left did its best to suppress and mock has come true, we're all out of conspiracy theories.

Here's liberal icon Jon Stewart giving that pompous, useful idiot Steve Colbert an aneurysm by making a total mockery of any other thesis on the origination of the Covid virus other than the most obvious one of all...that it came from the only lab in China doing these exact experiments in the same exact location. As a friend of mine noted devilishly, "Just imagine you are a lefty going to the Late Show for the first time in 15 months clutching your vaccine card hoping to get slimed in Trump and middle America hate and one of your lesser gods shits all over your picnic with a prolonged red pill." So damn good.

Despite the hilarity, this is vitally important. Remember, liberals of yesteryear exhibited at least some of the traits of classic liberalism such as independent thought, distrust of the security state and a staunch defense of Free speech (Chicago 7).  They tended to be wrong about most things, but at least arrived at their incorrect conclusions by utilizing and defending the traits that made the West, this Country and the Constitution the basis for liberty and prosperity.  Think how far they've fallen.  Now they're the vanguard of groupthink willingly marching us off into a Marxist surveillance state antithetical to everything most Americans hold dear.

The important thing to remember is up until a month ago, this would have gotten you censored and banned from nearly every social media channel, canceled at work and called an insane conspiracy theorist by the Totalitarian Left.

Better late than never, or as Jack Posobiec noted, "I applaud Jon Stewart for showing up 18 months late and saying what everyone is already saying when it became fashionable to do so."

Eye of the Hurricane

I'm going to project my own feelings onto the zeitgeist, but I think we're in the eye of the hurricane. We've reached herd immunity, it's summer, everyone wants to party and travel to make up for lost time and no one wants to work or deal with the big decisions on the horizon. Although the majority of my friends, clients and connects have had the best 12 months of their lives business and personal-wise (a stark lesson that it matters more than ever who you surround yourself with, and who you deliberately DON'T), it's clearly been a tough year for many.

The urge to 'take the summer' and just relax and have some fun after a year of distortion, manipulation and lockdowns is strong and understandable.  September is when most of the mortgage forbearance/eviction/foreclosure tolling runs out. It’s also when the Federal unemployment "bonus' that is contributing massively to the labor and supply shortages is scheduled to expire....but the urge to put off reality and party this Summer is strong. If that's what people mentally and emotionally need to recharge, I get it.  But do yourself a favor and at least look at your financial and career position now and where you'll be positioned in the Fall when everyone comes back to work, and when employers start asking people to return in person. The labor shortage means companies are desperate for good people. If you're a job seeker, better to fill those slots now than in September when the competition will be tougher.

America Remains a Tale of Two Cities

On one side there are the rapidly dwindling Fauci adherents, mostly big city white woke faux-science devotees who look at Joe Biden and actually don't cringe in embarrassment or break into laughter every time he opens his mouth.  These are the people who equate the FBI-led provocateur rally that turned into a mini-riot where the only casualty was a young girl murdered by a cop with the Oklahoma City bombing that killed 168 Americans.

On the other side are a mix of MAGA diehards, conservatives and libertarians that still believe in America and the founding principles, and are increasingly wary and concerned about the vast amount of power conferred to the state during this man created pandemic.

Totalitarianism requires one party rule and absolute party obedience. That's what the Democrats are shooting for and every move they've made in the last 4 years since Trump rudely interrupted their plan of one party rule and total social control has been geared to erasing political competition and marginalizing or eradicating anyone that doesn’t toe the Party line.

While the corrupt intelligence state has been working overtime to help facilitate this dominance for the past few years, we finally saw the proposed ‘Domestic Terrorism’ legislation unveiled and it's just about the most terrifying piece of legislation ever. It makes the Patriot Act which used 9/11 as the justification to unveil the most radical expansion of the surveillance state and compromise of individual liberties and civil rights in history look like after-school detention in comparison.

The Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2021 is essentially the criminalization of speech, expression, and thought. It takes cancel culture a step further and all but outlaws unpopular opinions. This act will empower intelligence, law enforcement, and even military wings of the American ruling class to crack down on individuals adhering to certain belief systems and ideologies. The bill effectively (and intentionally) criminalizes half the country.

Stalin and Mao would be proud.

Wyoming DAO

On the flip side of the Federal government's incompetence and venality, Wyoming unveiled a new law that would allow LLCs to be deemed and governed by DAOs, digital autonomous organizations.

One side of the political spectrum seeks absolute obedience and control, and will continue to do and say anything to corrupt freedom and propagate control of individuals.

Technologists, hackers, and liberty minded humans are on the other side seeking human empowerment and autonomy, decentralized power and distributed networks.

The greatest battle of the coming decade will be not Left vs Right,  but centralized vs decentralized.  If centralized (think Great Reset, Intelligence apparatus, Democrats/ corporate media, Big Tech,  Big Pharma) wins, you will have no rights other than what the state gives you, and you will own nothing (and trust me you won’t ‘be happy’ as the WEF crew propagandizes).

The forces of decentralization (cyberpunks, crypto, spirituality and consciousness expansion, disciples of Christ, iPatriots, Constitutionalists, voluntarists, libertarians) is all that stands between the country we used to know and a Marxist one party, surveillance state. Choose your side wisely.

The ongoing and upcoming battles are scary, but not surprising.

Keep your guard up people. We are at war.

Playing defense on our heels for the last few years may have been necessary, but it's not adequate. It's time to disrupt their networks.

Opt out of mainstream finance. Build your own financial and communications networks (Bitcoin, DeFi, distributed mesh, IPFS).

Get active in local elections, especially school boards and municipal control.

Weaponize your spending by shopping with those aligned and starve those who hate you.

Finally, continue to align and organize with like minded individuals. The Left organizes better than the right. That's a bug of the Democratic system Plato and Socrates forecast millenia ago in that progressives have voted in people and policies that make sure the faucet of public money and goods flows freely to their pet projects and pockets (while doing nothing for the community....just look at the bluest cities to see the corrosive effect of leftist ideologies - Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, NYC, etc).  So the communists will always be better funded, but they won't be more motivated.

The best thing free men and women can is to Get Sovereign.

If they can cancel you or hold providence over you, then you're compromised and unable to become the person your family and community need.

Get your financial, physical, mental and spiritual house in order. It's time to awaken, observe and orient to the reality on the ground. If not for your sake, then for your loved ones and legacy.

4 Types of Luck

This quick training is based on the writings of Marc Andreessen and Naval Ravikant. Besides the first category, the other three are perfectly within your agency. Winners put themselves in a position to harvest fate and create their own luck.

1. Blind luck

The first kind of luck you might say is blind luck. Where I just got lucky because something completely out of my control happened. That’s good fortune, like finding a $100 bill on the sidewalk.

2. Luck from hustling

Then there’s luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle and motion. Which is when you’re running around creating lots of opportunities, you’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lot of things, lots of things will get stirred up in the dust.

It’s almost like firing off a bunch of flares and seeing who responds. Or mixing a bunch of reagents and seeing what combines. You’re generating enough force and hustle and energy that luck will find you.

3. Luck from preparation

Luck favors the prepared. If you are very skilled in a field or have a well cultivated talent stack, you will notice when an opportunistic gap opens in that field, whereas other people who aren’t as prepared or attuned to it won’t notice. So you become sensitive and alert to luck through deliberate skill,  knowledge and work.

4. Luck from your unique character

Then the last kind of luck is the weirdest, hardest kind. But that’s what we want to talk about. Which is where you build a unique character, a unique brand, a unique mindset, where then luck finds you. Your reputation is like a magnet that draws luck closer.

For example, let’s say that you’re the best person in the world at deep sea underwater diving. You’re known to take on deep sea underwater dives that nobody else will even attempt to dare.

Then, by sheer luck, somebody finds a sunken treasure ship off the coast. They can’t get it. Well, their luck just became your luck, because they’re going to come to you to get that treasure. You’re going to get paid for it.

Now, that’s an extreme example. The person who got lucky by finding the treasure chest, that was blind luck. But them coming to you and asking you to extract it and having to give you half, that’s not luck.

You created your own luck. You put yourself in a position to be able to capitalize on that luck. Or to attract that luck when nobody else has created that opportunity for themselves. When we talk about “without getting lucky,” we want to be deterministic, we don’t want to leave it to chance.

You have agency over the last 3 types of luck.  When you hear, "he's always lucky" or other compliments, it's rarely blind luck that people are talking about, and thus not true 'luck' at all.

What I’m Reading…

**Comically easy to manipulate people into believing this rowdy party was an 'armed insurrection'.

**The King of Trading Cards: Ken Goldin, Market Maker, Evngelist, Therapist is Cashing In on Priceless Pieces of Cardboard.

**The FBI informant wanted for murder. Wild story.

**NFL Player Says He Would Rather Retire Than Take the COVID-19 Vaccine

**Beware of Superficial Images....Life Can Be Harder Than It Appears on Media, and Not As Fun.

**If Victoria Secret was public, I'd short it.

**Australian news has started calling out US media for it’s ‘simpering’ over Biden.

**$1.6 trillion in student debt is going to unfreeze in September.

**Opinion: Mao’s Cultural Revolution Has Arrived in America.

**Mark Cuban gets smoked in Titan, and then whines about Stablecoin regulation.  Simple rule of thumb is anytime the return is beyond a few percent, it's not a 'stablecoin' and certainly not risk-free.

What I’m Watching…

The Stevie Cohen, the Barry Bonds of Trading (yes, that is a deliberate analogy) talks shop and what life is like now. Learn from the greats.

Australia like other countries, has no problem breaking the media blackout and calling out the mind boggling cognitive absence of the leader of the free world.

Twitter Octagon

Parting Words

We must never cease to proclaim in fearless tones the great principles of freedom and the rights of man which are the joint inheritance of the English-speaking world and which through Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights, the Habeas Corpus, trial by jury, and the English common law find their most famous expression in the American Declaration of Independence.

-Winston Churchill

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